During the election the SNP candidates all received training from an expert in body language on how not to over-react to Unionist jibes. They were told to smile, be magnanimous, sound optimistic and don’t justify some floating voters’ fears that the Nats are a bunch of shouty fanatics. It worked.
The party’s leadership will have a hard time controlling their temper when they hear George Osborne’s latest intervention in the constitutional debate. As I read it the implication of his remarks in an interview with ITN is pretty clear. A vote for independence amounts to a vote for Scotland joining the Euro.
Pressed on whether an independent Scotland could keep Sterling until it possibly went for the Euro at a later date, the Chancellor would not answer. Leave the UK and join the Euro doesn’t sound like a great proposition in the current climate.
Here’s the transcript of Laura Kuenessberg’s interview
LK: Would Scotland have to join the Euro and would they be able to keep UK military bases?
GO: “Alex Salmond has himself said he’d want Scotland to join the Euro and you have to ask yourself is that the currency you want to be joining at the moment? That’s a question that the Scottish people are going to have to ask themselves.”
LK: Are you going to allow them to keep the pound?
GO: “All these issues are going to be fleshed out now and flushed out. The SNP is going to have to explain what its plans are for the currency of Scotland, what its plans are for the defence of Scotland when it doesn’t have the protection of the UK, what its plans are for the Scottish economy when its not part of a larger economy and able to benefit from UK companies like AstraZeneca. These are things the SNP has to explain to the Scottish people. they’ve been hiding behind the process and hiding behind the procedural arguments and this is the week when we move beyond those procedural arguments, we’ve settled what we think needs to be done and they’ve got to explain to the Scottish people how they could possibly be better off outside the UK.
LK: But yes or no, would you let an Independent Scotland keep the pound now?
GO: “Alex Salmond has said Scotland should join the Euro that means giving up the pound, joining the Euro, that is not the currency I’d be wanting to join at a time like this.”
The currency and Europe are a real pressure point. Before the Euro crisis it might have sounded perfectly sensible to many people for the SNP to suggest leaving the old Union, the UK, to join the supposedly fluffy union of the future, the EU. That’s now, post-Greece etc, a much harder sell.
No doubt we will now hear from a lot of incensed commentators warning that Osborne is being disrespectful and that it will only build support for independence (in which case the SNP should really be pleased). But the SNP wants England to take on the vast liabilities of RBS after independence and then enjoy stability by sticking with sterling (presumably expecting the Bank of England to be there as a lender of last resort for Scottish institutions). Osborne is actually just delivering a much-needed reality check.
A newly independent Scotland has a horrible choice. If it wants to join the EU, then it has to follow the process for new entrants in the Lisbon Treaty, which means accepting all existing EU law, including the Euro and Schengen. (New entrants are not allowed opt-outs).
A Scotland in Schengen would have to have border controls with England (as we are outside Schengen).
Of course, Salmond may believe that having Scotland join is such a benefit to the EU that the existing 27 are quite happy to reopen Lisbon and negotiate a new treaty just for him.
But I’m sure Salmond has thought this all through.
yes, osborne has begun the debate that needs to begin.
a contact of mine who is working as a provider of work choice assistance for the unemployed is now wondering what would actually happen to a programme like that with independence. these are all important questions that need answering.
and reading your most recent article, about another ed miliband relaunch, it is a bit of a shame that this debate has been left to george osborne to begin.
we might have to give him some credit for it, what a terrible thing that is.
[...] [3] http://www.iainmartinpolitics.com/2012/01/12/osborne-raises-the-stakes-to-a-pound/ [...]